Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, odds: 2022 Madrid Derby picks, best bets from proven soccer expert

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, odds: 2022 Madrid Derby picks, best bets from proven soccer expert

Published September 18, 2022
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Atletico Madrid aim to make a statement on Sunday when they host Real Madrid in the Madrid Derby. Atletico (3-1-1) are off to a wobbly start to the new La Liga season, but the latest edition of one of the world’s top rivalries should give them a jolt. They come off a 2-0 loss to Bayer Leverkusen in a UEFA Champion League match on Tuesday and are seventh in La Liga’s table, already five points behind Real Madrid. Los Blancos have won all five league games, as well as their two Champions League matches, including a 2-0 victory against RB Leipzig on Wednesday. The teams split the two meetings last season, each winning at home.   

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on Sunday in Madrid. Real are the +140 favorites (risk $100 to win $140) on the 90-minute money line in Caesars Sportsbook’s latest Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid odds. Atletico are +210 underdogs, a draw is priced at +220 and the over/under for total goals is 2.5. Before locking in any Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid picks or bets, you need to see the Spanish La Liga predictions from proven soccer insider Martin Green. 

After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been stunningly accurate. Green has generated almost $33,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season, and he is 5-3 on La Liga picks and 22-17 over his past 39 soccer picks overall. He has his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe.

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Now, Green has broken down the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid matchup from every angle and just locked in his picks and La Liga predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid:

The loss of Karim Benzema to injury hasn’t hurt as much as expected, as Real are off to their best start since 1968. They have continued to control the pace of their games behind midfielder Luka Modric (one goal, one assist), and Vinicius Junior (team-high four goals) continues to develop into a star. Los Blancos have held the ball for 60% of their matches so far, while Atletico are under 46%. Now, Los Rojiblancos are dealing with injuries on the back line, so the Real midfielders should be able to find some openings to spring the attackers on net. 

Los Blancos lead La Liga in shots (107) and attempts on net (39), and they have yielded just 17 on target. That means they are averaging almost five shots more on target per game. Atletico have scored nine goals in their five matches, but seven came in two games, while Real have scored 15, tied for most in La Liga.

Los Rojiblancos have given Real fits with their defensive approach, and that continues this season. They have allowed 68 shots, but just 29 of those have been on target, with that 22.1 shooting percentage the stingiest mark in La Liga. And while the Atletico attack hasn’t piled up shots, it has been the third-most efficient in the league in putting them on target. They have put 29 of 64 (45.3%) on frame, while Real are hitting the target 36.4% of the time. Atletico have allowed four goals and have been held off the score sheet just once in league play. 

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Alvaro Morata (three goals) and Antoine Griezmann (two) are the top scorers, though Griezmann typically comes off the bench. Joao Felix shares the league lead in assists (three) and goal-creating actions (six). The head-to-head results are even over the past 18 meetings at 5-8-5, and they are also all square in the past eight with Atletico playing host (2-4-2). Los Rojiblancos went 12-5-2 with a plus-17 goal differential at home last season. They lost to Sevilla in their home opener but blasted Celta Vigo 4-1 in their last league match at home last Saturday.

Green has broken down the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid matchup from every angle and revealed his best bets. He is leaning Under on the goal total and provides three confident best bets, including two that would pay off at plus money. He’s only sharing his La Liga picks here.

So, who wins Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid in Sunday’s Spanish La Liga showdown? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid match, all from the European soccer expert who has generated almost $33,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.